Hitting 12 In Blackjack
I analyze all sorts of blackjack strategies and rank them for your fun and profit.
Hitting a Hand in Blackjack. A new round at the blackjack table starts with everyone receiving two cards that comprise their starting hands. This includes the dealer who normally receives their first card up while their second card is dealt face-down.The players would either receive their two cards face-up in shoe-dealt blackjack or face-down in pitch games where only one or two decks are in play. Blackjack Odds: Playing Hit or Stand will improve your blackjack strategy, and increase your chances of winning money. However, unless you count cards, the odds of blackjack are against you, even if you are a perfect player. By chance, the outcome may sway in your favor from time to time; but the rule is: the more you gamble the more money you.
In every single movie about Las Vegas and the gangsters that run it, some character says to another character, “The house always wins.”
Yet that doesn’t stop all of us from trying to beat the casino. Specifically blackjack. We all think we’re better than blackjack.
We’re not, of course. But we think we are. I compiled this list of 11 popular strategies for beating blackjack and ranked them here, starting with the least effective and building toward the most effective.
11 Superstitions
I’ve seen tons of blackjack superstitions. None of these actually do anything — but either do lucky shirts, avoiding black cats, turning off the light switch three times to keep Charlie from dying, or any of the other day-to-day superstitions people swear by.
So it’s not going to change your blackjack fortunes if you violate your superstitions — even if you let new players enter during a shoe… you don’t bother saying “Nice hit” to someone who gets a six on a 15… you wish yourself good luck on your first-card ace… you tap twice instead of scratching the felt to hit… or forget your lucky cowboy hat. Gamblor is immune to superstition.
10 Gut feelings
It seems that most people who sit down at a blackjack table have a rough understanding of textbook blackjack strategy. At least on the most basic level. The “gut feelings” strategy is a mix of playing with basic blackjack strategy but also having feelings. For example: “I’m going to stay on this 16, I just know the next card is a 10.” (I’ve seen my friend Bruce almost attack people for that statement. More than once.)
The problem here, from a mathematical perspective — aka my favorite perspective — is that blackjack strategy is constructed to give you an edge if you adhere to it without deviation and play for a long, long time. It’s like a thousand monkeys on a thousand typewriters — eventually they’re going to write A Tale of Two Cities. But as soon as you deviate from the strategy for a gut feeling, that’s like telling your monkeys that they’re now trying to accidentally write Sarah Palin’s Going Rogue: An American Life.
9 Easy card counting
I have three different levels of card counting on this list, because not all card counting is created equal. Some methods are so basic that you can learn them in 15 minutes. Some take months or years of practice.
Easy card counting might give you a small bump. One strategy like this is called ace/five — that’s where you start with the number zero, add one for every five dealt and subtract one for every ace. If the count is more than two, you double your previous bet. If the count is less than two, you bet the minimum. It’s simple, and marginally effective across a large data set.
Another easy card counting style is the famed “I feel like I’ve seen a lot of big cards” strategy. This is the one where you’re paying like 80 percent attention, but you feel like you’ve seen a lot of big cards come out already so you scale back your bets. This somewhat resembles wearing shorts outside in February because you feel like there have been so many snowy days that some sun is due.
8 Avoiding elderly female Korean dealers
This isn’t necessarily a winning strategy but more of an “avoid losing” strategy. Simply put: If you stand up and walk away every time there’s a dealer switch and an elderly female Korean assassin takes over your table, it will probably save you thousands of dollars in your lifetime.
7 Bet incrementing
Bet incrementing is like card counting without the card counting. It’s more like streak counting. There are different systems but they all basically come down to this: If you’re winning, keep increasing your bet; if you’re losing, don’t increase your bet.
This certainly helps avoid the break-even rut that blackjack can fall into — where you sit there for hours and never swing more than 25 percent or so from your buy-in. With incrementing, you’re either blowing money quickly or raking it in quickly.
But it’s not really a system to beat the house… just one to help you channel your luck. Incrementing coupled with counting can actually increase your winning percentage (or, more accurately, shave a small amount off the house edge). But incrementing without counting is like having sexual relations with multiple people and eschewing condoms until you catch an STD, then going back to condoms again.
6 Cheating
I put this in the middle of the list because it can go either way. If you spend hours going from casino to casino searching for a rookie dealer who might occasionally expose the very bottom burn card, that’s ineffective and inefficient cheating.
If you hide cards in your sleeve or try to subtlety double your bet when you get a good hand, those are more effective cheating strategies. Sure, you’ll end up getting dragged into a windowless room in the bowels of the casino and getting beat — fittingly — with a blackjack. But you’ll win some serious cash in the process.
5 Shuffle Tracking
In most of the big Vegas casinos you can’t do this anymore — the dealer doesn’t shuffle, he just puts the cards in a machine that automatically shuffles them. (Or, if you’re more of a conspiracy theorist, that sequences them to make sure you all get screwed.)
But if you’re playing blackjack and the dealer is manually shuffling, this actually can be moderately effective. You have to pay detailed attention to the sequence that the cards come out, because you’re looking for clusters. Maybe you try to remember the number and suit of the two cards that lead up to every ace. You expect that, during a human shuffle, some of those clusters will stay together — and you might have a little edge in knowing when the aces are coming.
It requires a lot of concentration, but might actually help you make a better decision on one or two hands every two or three shoes. It’s a long-term play. Continuing the analogy motif of this list, it’s like getting three green shells on the first lap in Mario Kart 64 and holding them indefinitely, hoping that you’ll be in a situation eventually where they’ll benefit you.
4 Basic strategy and time
Basic strategy is the calling card of blackjack — if you play with proper strategy, blackjack gives you the best odds in the casino over time. (People forget the “over time” aspect. We’re a culture that freaks out over small sample sizes. They’re the only thing keeping Around the Horn on the air.)
And over time, basic strategy really can make a difference — infinite computer simulations have proven it. But you need to have the discipline to hit 12 and 13 against a 2… hit soft 18 against a 9, 10 or ace… split 8s against a 10 even if you’re on a cold streak… and refuse to take even money for blackjacks. Every single time you play, with no exceptions, for your entire life.
3 Medium-difficulty card counting
This is the kind of card counting that the common man can learn and try to employ. You don’t need an entire team of MIT-educated math geniuses to work as spotters and helpers and trainers to make it work. (It’d be hard to get that team together anyway, what with them knowing they’d be whitewashed if a movie was made about your adventures.)
These medium strategies are more advanced than the counting strategies I talked about earlier. Here you might try something like the current “hot” counting style, called the Zen Count. (You subtract one for an ace; add one for a 2, 3 or 7; add two for a 4, 5 or 6; and subtract two for a ten.) This requires practice and concentration, *might* get you kicked out of a casino but probably not, and will give you more of an advantage than you’re used to.
Of course, if you’re doing this, you can’t really drink — so that’s a $6-$32 per hour loss, depending on the efficiency of your waitress and your willingness to consume Long Island iced teas in the middle of the afternoon. So make sure to factor that in.
2 Hard card counting team effort
These are the card counting systems you would see in movies like 21 and others. (No, I can’t actually name others, I just assume there are others.) Basically, you and your genius friends develop an advanced card counting strategy. Then you all watch and card count different tables and signal each other when a table is about to start paying off. The money guy goes to that table, bets a ton, then gets the hell out as soon as the pit bosses start whispering to each other and casting furtive glances in your direction.
On the downside, this is the kind of thing that casinos are on the lookout for and that might only exist in fantasy at this point. On the upside, if you do choose this method, you get to wear cool disguises and play different characters at the table! So if you and your friends from differential calculus class started an improv troupe, you were born for this.
(Side note: I bet that improv troupe would have a kitschy name like “RDRR” or “Nothing Derivative” or “Kristen Cavalieri’s Principle.”)
1 Autistic brother
Show me the money! Feel the need for speed! I want the truth! You’re glib!
—
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Some hard totals in blackjack are more difficult to handle since they are neither high enough to stand on nor low enough to hit without a significant risk of breaking the hand. This gets many recreational players perplexed causing them to make intuitive decisions while at the table and we all know what hunches translate into in the context of gambling – excruciating losses in the long term.
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Two of the hands many unwitting players tend to struggle with are hard totals 12 and 13. Some people are bold enough to always hit those hands in an attempt to outdraw their dealer. Others are terrified of the idea of busting on a hit so they always decide to stand.
What both types of players choose to ignore is that mathematically, there is a right and a wrong way to play hard 12 and hard 13. It all comes down to what dealer upcard you are facing. In this article, we explain the right ways to play these totals and tackle some commonly committed mistakes.
The Optimal Playing Decisions for Hard 12
Like all hard totals, hard 12 lacks an Ace that can be counted as 1 or 11 which takes away the much-desired flexibility of its soft cousin. This hand total can result from the following two-card combinations: 6-6, 7-5, 8-4, 10-2, and 9-3.
A pair of Aces also results in a 12 but we are not discussing this here because this is a soft total that calls for an entirely different approach. The correct playing decisions for a hard 12 are based solely on the upcards of the dealer.
The number of decks and the playing conditions for the dealer do not affect your decisions in this case since the optimal strategy for hard 12 is the same no matter whether you are playing single-deck, double-deck, multiple-deck, H17, or S17 blackjack.
Basic strategy advises players to stand on hard 12 against dealers who expose a 4, a 5, or a 6. If you take the time to examine the chart in our article on blackjack odds and probabilities, you will immediately notice that these three cards are very disadvantageous for the dealer because they carry over 40% risk of the dealer busting.
The Optimal Playing Decisions for Hard 12 Additional TipsIf the dealer exposes cards 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10, or Ace, players are recommended to hit their hard 12. The dealer may still be in a breaking position with the deuce and the trey but these two cards are not as bad for him or her.
The likelihood of the dealer busting with them is respectively, 35.30% and 37.56% so you stand better chances of winning if you hit instead of standing on your hard 12. Hitting the hard 12 against a 2 or a 3 is recommended because there are only 4 out of 13 possible card denominations that can lead to a bust – the 10 and the three court cards (Jack, Queen, and King).
Then again, 3 out of 13 card denominations result in a significant improvement of the player’s hand, the 9, the 8, and 7. If you draw cards 2 through 6, you may not end up with a stellar total but at least you can rest certain they will not bust you either.
Note that when the dealer shows upcards 7 through Ace, they are in a standing position which is to say there are more likely to turn over a hole card that gives them their standing total of 17 or higher. Because of this, you are recommended to take a hit on your hard 12. Otherwise, the dealer will outdraw you most of the time with upcards 7 through Ace.
Doubling down is never an option with a hard holding of 12 but you may choose to split paired 6s. We cover this subject in more detail in a separate article. For now, it suffices to say that here your splitting decisions are affected by the number of decks in play as well as by your dealer’s upcard and their fixed standing total.
Misplaying Hard 12 against the Dealer’s Deuce
One of the most striking things about this hard total is that it appears on the list of the most frequently misplayed hands in blackjack despite the fact the basic strategy decisions for hard 12 are among the simplest to learn because they are pretty much the same regardless of deck number and dealer standing rules.
Many unknowledgeable players tend to misplay their hard 12 particularly when they are up against a dealer exposing a deuce. As we explained, the correct play for hard 12 against a 2 is to hit. Yet, many people choose the opposite move – they stand instead of hitting because they are scared of busting with a ten-value card.
All qualms of the house outdrawing them disappear because the deuce is a bad card that exposes the dealer to the risk of busting, right? But then again, there is also the “10 in the hole” rule some players always abide by, reasoning that the dealer’s hole card should always be considered a ten-value one. The dealer would flip a 10 next to their deuce, take another hit, and bust.
And, yes, the deuce is surely not the most advantageous card for the dealer but it does not put them in the worse possible position, either, like a 5 or a 6 does. Their bust frequency with the deuce is lower as we told you earlier, which skews the probabilities of winning the hard 12 with a hit in your favor, albeit slightly.
Misplaying Hard 12 against the Dealer’s Deuce Additional TipsAs was previously explained, there are only 4 out of 13 cards that can cause you to bust on a hard 12 by taking a hit. Cards 5 through 9 put you in a better position with pat hands that total 17 through 21. Therefore, there are 5 cards that help you out of 13 possible denominations.
In six-deck blackjack where the dealer follows the S17 rule, your probability of winning is roughly 35% if you choose to stand on hard 12 against a deuce while that of you losing is almost twice as high at around 65%, i.e. if we do not take pushes into consideration.
Hitting 12 In Blackjack
Meanwhile, the likelihood of you winning if you take a hit in this situation is slightly greater at around 37% while that of you losing is roughly 63%. You are dealing with negative expectation no matter how you look at it. If you are consistent with standing on hard 12 against a deuce, you will lose $30 on average per every $100 you wager ($65-$35 = $30) when you flat bet in increments of $1 per hand.
Hitting On 12 In Blackjack
Provided that you hit this hand consistently, you will lose only $26 on average for every $100 wagered on your hard 12 against a deuce ($63 – $37 = $26). It makes sense that you should choose the move that causes you to lose less money, right?
The Optimal Playing Decisions for Hard 13
The optimal playing decisions for hard 13 are also the same regardless of how many decks you are playing and the fixed rules set by the house. This is yet another hand that lacks an Ace or when it contains one, it has a value of 1 only. Here are a few examples of hard 13 hands: 7-6, 8-5, 9-4, 10-3, 10-2-A, and 9-3-A.
Since hard 13 is more prone to busting than hard 12 (with 5 out of 13 card denominations that can break the hand), players should approach it more conservatively. Basic strategy recommends standing on hard 13 against upcards 2 through 6 because these put the dealer in a breaking position.
Conversely, the optimal approach for hard 13 when the dealer shows cards 7 through Ace is to take a hit. These cards are more likely to result in pat hands and put the dealer in a standing position where they outdraw the player’s hard 13.
Now that you know how to approach hands 12 and 13 against all possible upcards of the dealer, these two hard totals should no longer pose as a predicament to you at the blackjack table. Moreover, the strategy works in both online and landbased blackjack games.